China Extends US Trade Truce Two Months as Fed Weighs Hikes and AI Stocks Slide
China extended its US trade truce by two months on Nov 9, suspending the 24% tariff, port fees and rare earth controls. In the US, a strong jobs report revived Fed rate-hike talk and an AI-linked stock selloff followed the midterms. Southeast Asia funding hit $13.5 billion in nine months, concentrated in a few mega-deals.
1 · Do
1.1
This Week · with COO, Head of Procurement, CFO
Review hardware and GPU procurement commitments against the two-month China tariff, port-fee and rare earth extension, and pull forward orders that would otherwise land after the January cliff. Brief the board on the Xi-Trump APEC outcome next week.
Prepare a rate-hike runway scenario, reflecting Fed officials Hammack and Barkin's push for gradual increases and the post-midterm AI selloff. Stress-test 18-month cash burn and build pricing flexibility into government and enterprise contracts.
This Month · with CEO, Head of Partnerships, Head of Corporate Development
Engage corporate VCs and data centre operators, starting with the Wavemaker and Counterpart CVC Summit in Singapore on Nov 18. Position the company as an infrastructure-adjacent partner, since SEA's October funding of $3.68B came from only 13 rounds.
October's $3.68 billion in Southeast Asian funding came from just 13 rounds, down from 23 a year earlier, so a small Singapore AI vendor should pursue corporate-VC and infrastructure-adjacent partners rather than wait on a broad funding recovery.
2.2
China's two-month extension of the 24% tariff, port-fee and rare earth waivers only defers supply-chain risk, so On The Ground Technologies should lock in hardware procurement and shipping before the January cliff.
2.3
Quote
“AI is "deeply embedded in pensions, debt markets and the broader economy" (Bloomberg), so an AI-stock selloff driven by regulation fears and Fed hike talk can tighten the enterprise and government budgets a Singapore AI seller depends on.”— Bloomberg
2.4
Figure
US imports hit a record $426.6 billion in September because tariff-exempt AI servers, chips and networking gear keep flowing, which sustains demand for the regional data centre and semiconductor opportunities Singapore suppliers target.
2.5
Watch the Xi-Trump APEC meeting next week and any post-midterm tariff changes that could remove AI hardware exemptions, because C.H. Robinson warns more US tariffs are possible after the Nov 3 midterms.
Why.Trade diplomacy is driving the truce: Xi and Trump are set to meet at APEC next week. Inflation pressure and strong jobs data are pushing the Fed toward hikes. Investors fear tougher AI regulation after Democrats' midterm gains, per the BBC, while record AI hardware imports show demand outpacing tariffs.
What to watch.Watch the Xi-Trump APEC meeting next week and the January expiry of the extended suspensions. Track Fed commentary on hikes and any AI regulation signals from a Democratic House. For funding, the Nov 18 CVC Summit in Singapore will show whether corporate VCs are backing AI firms beyond data centres.
3 · What changed
3.1 · Regulatory Changes
China Extends Tariff, Port-Fee and Rare Earth Suspensions Two Months Before Xi-Trump APEC Meeting
What’s new. On Nov 9, China extended suspension of its 24% tariff on US goods, port fees on US-linked ships, and rare earth export-control waivers by two months. The truce was due to expire Tuesday; Xi and Trump are expected to meet at APEC next week.
Why it matters. For a small Singapore AI firm, the extension keeps chip and rare-earth supply chains and shipping costs stable near term. Reuters notes the waivers preserve "part of a wide-ranging deal", so the exposure stays temporary.
By the numbers. 24% additional tariff suspended; two-month extension; $60-billion reciprocal package proposed after September's Washington summit; third Xi-Trump meeting this year.
The bottom line. Supply-chain risk is deferred, not removed; plan hardware procurement around a January cliff.
What to watch. Outcome of the Xi-Trump APEC meeting next week and whether post-midterm US tariffs return, as C.H. Robinson warns.
3.2 · Market Trends
Fed Officials Float Rate Hikes as Post-Election AI Selloff Rattles Markets
What’s new. Reuters reported Nov 6 that a strong jobs report bolstered the case for Fed rate hikes, while Hammack and Barkin urged gradual increases. Bloomberg and the BBC tied a tech selloff to AI bubble and regulation fears after the midterms.
Why it matters. Higher-for-longer rates and AI-regulation fears raise capital costs for AI vendors. Bloomberg says AI is "deeply embedded in pensions, debt markets and the broader economy", so a selloff can tighten enterprise and government budgets.
The bottom line. Expect tighter funding conditions and more scrutiny of AI valuations; keep runway and pricing flexible.
What to watch. Next Fed decision and any Democratic-led AI regulation proposals after the midterms.
3.3 · Investment & M&A
Southeast Asia Funding Surges on Data Centre Mega-Deals as OpenAI and Fal Raise Billions
What’s new. Tracxn data show SEA tech raised $13.5 billion in nine months, up 176%, with October hitting $3.68 billion across only 13 rounds. OpenAI closed $11 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation; Fal raised at $16 billion.
Why it matters. Capital is concentrating in a few mega-deals: DayOne's $4.5 billion raise drove Singapore's data centre boom while round counts fell. A small Singapore AI vendor faces a thin funding market outside infrastructure.
By the numbers. $13.5B in nine months (+176%); October $3.68B vs $208.64M in September; 13 rounds vs 23 a year ago; H1 $7.25B across 217 deals.
The bottom line. Headline funding masks scarcity for mid-size startups, so pursue strategic and corporate-VC capital and infrastructure-adjacent partnerships.
What to watch. Wavemaker and Counterpart's CVC Summit in Singapore on Nov 18 for corporate-VC appetite.
3.4 · Market Trends
AI Hardware Imports Push US Trade Deficit Elevated at $105 Billion Despite Tariffs
What’s new. US imports hit a record $426.6 billion in September, leaving the deficit at $105.0 billion. The Economist says surging demand for tariff-exempt servers, chips and networking gear is driving global trade.
Why it matters. Tariff exemptions for AI hardware keep data centre build-outs viable for Singapore and Southeast Asian suppliers. Demand for chips and servers remains the strongest trade signal.
By the numbers. Deficit down 0.7% to $105.0B; imports up 1.2% to $426.6B; exports up 1.9% to $321.5B.
The bottom line. AI hardware demand is outrunning protectionism, which supports regional data centre and semiconductor-linked opportunities.
What to watch. Whether post-midterm tariff changes remove current exemptions for AI hardware.
4 · What we could and could not see
4 topic searches; 2 timed out and the fallback search answered. 30 articles from 21 outlets, 4 of them from CNBC. All are in the stories above; nothing was set aside.
0 of 4 stories rest on a single outlet. Treat those as reported, not confirmed.
